GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/20/2023, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Santos · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Highconfidence

Santos are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.20 conceded, while A. Italiano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Santos hold an 18.3-point power-rating edge (63.4 v 45.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Santos holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Santos

Probability

62.7%

Model confidence

62.7%

Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

SantosLWWWW

GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20

BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
A. ItalianoLWLDD

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SantosA. Italiano
66.7Attack38.1
63.0Defence52.4
59.3Form38.1
63.4Power45.1
2.03xG0.78
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