Santosvs
A. Italiano
COMPLETEDWorld · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 4/20/2023, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santos · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Santos are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.20 conceded, while A. Italiano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Santos hold an 18.3-point power-rating edge (63.4 v 45.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 62.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Santos holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santos
Probability
62.7%
Model confidence
62.7%
Santos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40