Santos Lagunavs
CF Pachuca
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga MX · 9/27/2026, 3:05:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CF Pachuca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santos Laguna 1-0 CF Pachuca
Original prediction
CF Pachuca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.19 | 29.1% | 20.8% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.5% | 23.6% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 44.4% | 55.6% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–112%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
CF Pachuca
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
CF Pachuca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80