Santiago Morningvs
Provincial Ovalle
COMPLETEDChile · Segunda División · 8/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santiago Morning · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santiago Morning 1-0 Provincial Ovalle, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santiago Morning 0-0 Provincial Ovalle
Original prediction
Santiago Morning
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 52.1% | 54.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.4% | 26.7% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.20 | 21.6% | 18.4% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Projected Score
Santiago Morning 1–0 Provincial Ovalle
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Santiago Morning
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Santiago Morning has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40