Santamarinavs
Costa Brava
COMPLETEDArgentina · Torneo Federal A · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santamarina 0-0 Costa Brava, with an exact score probability of 38%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santamarina 1-3 Costa Brava
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 36.2% | 25.0% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.65 | 34.0% | 38.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 29.8% | 36.4% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Projected Score
Santamarina 0–0 Costa Brava
Exact score probability: 38%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SantamarinaLWLWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Costa BravaDLWWD
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SantamarinaCosta Brava
20.3Attack27.5
60.9Defence72.5
27.5Form40.6
38.0Power48.9
0.39xG0.61