Santamarinavs
Circulo Deportivo
COMPLETEDArgentina · Torneo Federal A · 8/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santamarina 0-0 Circulo Deportivo, with an exact score probability of 41%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santamarina 2-1 Circulo Deportivo
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.9% | 29.4% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.76 | 32.8% | 40.3% | 7.4 pts |
| Away | 3.58 | 25.3% | 30.4% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Projected Score
Santamarina 0–0 Circulo Deportivo
Exact score probability: 41%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SantamarinaLWLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Circulo DeportivoLDDWL
GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 0.20/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
SantamarinaCirculo Deportivo
19.0Attack14.3
60.3Defence71.4
25.4Form28.6
36.6Power40.5
0.41xG0.50