GGOALVIO

Brazil · Paulista Série B · 5/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Independente SP · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Mediumconfidence

Santacruzense are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Independente SP are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Independente SP hold a 25.3-point power-rating edge (48.8 v 74.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.0% in the Paulista Série B, while Independente SP holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Independente SP

Probability

64.8%

Model confidence

12.0%

Independente SP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

SantacruzenseLWDWL

GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Independente SPWWLDW

GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SantacruzenseIndependente SP
52.8Attack88.2
55.6Defence78.4
41.7Form76.5
48.8Power74.1
0.83xG2.08
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