Santa Lucíavs
Zurrieq
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/11/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Lucía · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Lucía 1-1 Zurrieq
Original prediction
Santa Lucía
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.6% | 45.3% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 24.4% | 26.8% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.71 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Santa Lucía
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Santa Lucía has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80