Santa Lucíavs
Naxxar Lions
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/24/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Naxxar Lions · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Lucía 1-1 Naxxar Lions
Original prediction
Naxxar Lions
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.58 | 25.3% | 30.9% | 5.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 26.6% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 49.2% | 42.5% | -6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Naxxar Lions
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Naxxar Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40