Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Santa Fe are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Goias are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Santa Fe hold a 44.0-point power-rating edge (94.8 v 50.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Santa Fe holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 35% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00