Santa Cruzvs
Maringá
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie C · 10/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Cruz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santa Cruz 0-0 Maringá, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Cruz 1-1 Maringá
Original prediction
Santa Cruz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 37.4% | 40.8% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.86 | 31.8% | 31.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.8% | 27.5% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Santa Cruz 0–0 Maringá
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Santa Cruz
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Santa Cruz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Santa CruzDWWWD
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
MaringáDWLWW
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 0.80/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
Santa CruzMaringá
34.8Attack50.7
76.8Defence55.1
56.5Form53.6
58.5Power54.0
1.02xG0.65