Santa Cruzvs
Floresta
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie C · 9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Cruz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santa Cruz 0-0 Floresta, with an exact score probability of 30%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Cruz 1-0 Floresta
Original prediction
Santa Cruz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.5% | 44.3% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.81 | 32.1% | 35.1% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 5.51 | 16.4% | 20.6% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.3 pts
Projected Score
Santa Cruz 0–0 Floresta
Exact score probability: 30%
Predicted outcome
Santa Cruz
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Santa Cruz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Santa CruzWWDWL
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
FlorestaWLWWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Santa CruzFloresta
34.9Attack36.5
76.2Defence66.7
55.6Form52.4
57.9Power54.5
0.76xG0.47