Santa Cruzvs
Botafogo PB
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie C · 9/6/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Santa Cruz 0-0 Botafogo PB, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Cruz 1-0 Botafogo PB
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 38.2% | 34.9% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.82 | 32.3% | 33.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.5% | 31.5% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Santa Cruz 0–0 Botafogo PB
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.6%
Model confidence
34.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Santa CruzDWLDL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Botafogo PBWWDDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Santa CruzBotafogo PB
35.1Attack49.1
73.7Defence66.7
50.9Form57.9
55.4Power59.2
0.74xG0.72