Santa Catarinavs
Marcílio Dias
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/13/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Catarina · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Catarina 2-1 Marcílio Dias
Original prediction
Santa Catarina
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.6% | 46.1% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.91 | 30.9% | 27.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 31.5% | 26.7% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Santa Catarina
Probability
46.1%
Model confidence
46.1%
Santa Catarina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60