Santa CatarinavsGuarany de Bagé

Santa Catarina are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Guarany de Bagé are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Santa Catarina hold a 35.8-point power-rating edge (60.1 v 24.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 73.9% in the Serie D, while Santa Catarina holds the strongest overall chance at 74% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.