Santa Catarinavs
Figueirense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Catarina · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Santa Catarina 1-2 Figueirense
Original prediction
Santa Catarina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 12:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.3% | 49.0% | 13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.2% | 25.0% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 35.5% | 26.0% | -9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Santa Catarina
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Santa Catarina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60