Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Ana · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Santa Ana are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLD), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Aserri FC are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LDLDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Santa Ana hold a 53.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.4% in the Liga de Ascenso, while Santa Ana holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santa Ana
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Santa Ana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80