Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Ana · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Santa Ana are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Aserri FC are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Santa Ana hold a 53.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 26.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.4% in the Liga de Ascenso, while Santa Ana holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santa Ana
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Santa Ana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40