Sanjoanensevs
Nacional
COMPLETEDPortugal · Taça de Portugal · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanjoanense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sanjoanense 1-0 Nacional
Original prediction
Sanjoanense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.61 | 13.7% | 39.2% | 25.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.52 | 20.0% | 24.4% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 66.3% | 36.4% | -29.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 5.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Sanjoanense
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Sanjoanense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 15 · avg 1.00/3.00