Sanfrecce Hiroshimavs
Okinawa SV
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 8/26/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Okinawa SV
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 82.5% | 49.3% | -33.1 pts |
| Draw | 7.74 | 11.8% | 24.4% | 12.6 pts |
| Away | 16.00 | 5.7% | 26.3% | 20.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.67/5.33