Sanfrecce Hiroshimavs
Nagoya Grampus
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 Nagoya Grampus
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 61.9% | 51.9% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.29 | 21.8% | 24.8% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 5.72 | 16.3% | 23.3% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60