Sanfrecce Hiroshimavs
Kyoto Sanga
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/17/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 2-0 (14%), 4-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 Kyoto Sanga
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 69.0% | 80.0% | 10.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.09 | 18.4% | 12.8% | -5.6 pts |
| Away | 7.41 | 12.6% | 7.3% | -5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.2–014%
- 3.4–011%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
80.0%
Model confidence
80.0%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 0 · avg 2.00/0.00
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40