Sanfrecce Hiroshimavs
Iwaki
COMPLETEDJapan · Emperor Cup · 10/7/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-0 Iwaki
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 72.7% | 48.4% | -24.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.35 | 17.1% | 24.3% | 7.2 pts |
| Away | 8.89 | 10.3% | 27.3% | 17.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20