Sanfrecce Hiroshimavs
Cerezo Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Cerezo Osaka, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6-1 Cerezo Osaka
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 59.3% | 55.0% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.27 | 21.9% | 25.1% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.99 | 18.8% | 19.9% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Projected Score
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Cerezo Osaka
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40