EliteserienEliteserien
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:05
Sandefjord

Sandefjord

Home
D
03
Full time
Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt

Away
WW
Jotun Arena
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Bodo/Glimt(40%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Win probability
Sandefjord
33%
Draw
27%
Bodo/Glimt
40%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Sandefjord
73
Bodo/Glimt
54
Defence
Sandefjord
27
Bodo/Glimt
91
Momentum
Sandefjord
33
Bodo/Glimt
100
Danger (xG)
Sandefjord
1.40
Bodo/Glimt
2.03
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.34 xG for Sandefjord and 1.52 xG for Bodo/Glimt — meaningful and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-2 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.19), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.86 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 1-2 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Sandefjord's Attack Score (73) vs Bodo/Glimt's Defensive Stability (91) and Bodo/Glimt's attack (54) vs Sandefjord's defence (27) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Sandefjord)
1.40
avg per match
xG for (Bodo/Glimt)
2.03
avg per match
xG against (Sandefjord)
0.99
avg per match
xG against (Bodo/Glimt)
0.64
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
SandefjordSandefjord
DL
Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt
WWWDW

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Sandefjord33%
Draw27%
Bodo/Glimt40%

Bodo/Glimt leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Bodo/Glimt Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1

Sandefjord take on Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien.

Key factors

: 📈 Recent Form Bodo/Glimt have recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches compared to Sandefjord's 0. The model weights recent form heavily as a short-term momentum signal.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record Bodo/Glimt have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Sandefjord have won 0 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger underlying metrics, Sandefjord's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Bodo/Glimt have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these sides. Historical head-to-head dominance captures tactical matchup advantages that aggregate stats can miss — when one team consistently finds ways to beat the same opponent, that pattern is a meaningful signal in its own right.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Bodo/Glimt, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Sandefjord score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.19 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Sandefjord

Sandefjord

D
vs Ham-Kam
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 1.4
L
@ Lillestrom
16 May 2026
13
Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt

W
vs Fredrikstad
17 Jul 2026
10
xG 2.4
W
@ KFUM Oslo
12 Jul 2026
20
xG 1.7
W
@ Molde
28 Jun 2026
41
D
@ Rosenborg
29 May 2026
22
xG 2.0
W
vs Tromso
16 May 2026
50

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?

GoalVio's model predicts Bodo/Glimt to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sandefjord vs Bodo/Glimt?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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