Sanat Naftvs
Aluminium Arak
COMPLETEDIran · Persian Gulf Pro League · 10/17/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aluminium Arak · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sanat Naft 0-1 Aluminium Arak, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sanat Naft 2-1 Aluminium Arak
Original prediction
Aluminium Arak
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.72 | 15.7% | 16.2% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 29.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.60 | 56.2% | 54.4% | -1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Projected Score
Sanat Naft 0–1 Aluminium Arak
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Aluminium Arak
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Aluminium Arak has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00