San Miguelvs
Ciudad de Bolívar
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 10/17/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: San Miguel 0-0 Ciudad de Bolívar, with an exact score probability of 34%.
Prediction record
Final result
San Miguel 1-2 Ciudad de Bolívar
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 41.3% | 28.6% | -12.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.74 | 33.5% | 37.3% | 3.8 pts |
| Away | 3.65 | 25.2% | 34.1% | 8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Projected Score
San Miguel 0–0 Ciudad de Bolívar
Exact score probability: 34%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
San MiguelDLLDD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
Ciudad de BolívarWWWLD
GF 4 · GA 2 · avg 0.80/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
San MiguelCiudad de Bolívar
26.3Attack28.3
60.6Defence71.7
32.3Form48.5
42.0Power52.1
0.47xG0.64