San Martínvs
Astur
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/27/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Martín · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Martín 2-2 Astur
Original prediction
San Martín
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.9% | 39.1% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.8% | 28.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 29.3% | 32.1% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.13 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
San Martín
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
San Martín has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 1 · avg 0.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 1.50/2.00