San Martín Burzacovs
Excursionistas
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 10/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excursionistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: San Martín Burzaco 0-1 Excursionistas, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
San Martín Burzaco 1-1 Excursionistas
Original prediction
Excursionistas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.94 | 22.9% | 23.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.3% | 29.8% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 48.9% | 46.8% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Projected Score
San Martín Burzaco 0–1 Excursionistas
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Excursionistas
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Excursionistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40