San Martin Tucumanvs
Gimnasia Y Tiro
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 10/4/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: San Martin Tucuman 0-0 Gimnasia Y Tiro, with an exact score probability of 27%.
Prediction record
Final result
San Martin Tucuman 1-0 Gimnasia Y Tiro
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.6% | 38.2% | -16.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.2% | 33.7% | 5.5 pts |
| Away | 5.37 | 17.1% | 28.1% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.5 pts
Projected Score
San Martin Tucuman 0–0 Gimnasia Y Tiro
Exact score probability: 27%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.7%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40