San Martin Formosavs
Sarmiento de La Banda
COMPLETEDArgentina · Torneo Federal A · 9/13/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Martin Formosa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: San Martin Formosa 1-0 Sarmiento de La Banda, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
San Martin Formosa 3-0 Sarmiento de La Banda
Original prediction
San Martin Formosa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.5% | 54.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 26.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.91 | 18.4% | 18.7% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Projected Score
San Martin Formosa 1–0 Sarmiento de La Banda
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
San Martin Formosa
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
San Martin Formosa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60