San Marinovs
Finland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/26/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Marino · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: San Marino 2-0 Finland, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
San Marino 0-7 Finland
Original prediction
San Marino
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 30.02 | 3.1% | 45.7% | 42.6 pts |
| Draw | 9.82 | 9.6% | 19.7% | 10.2 pts |
| Away | 1.08 | 87.3% | 34.6% | -52.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
42.6 pts
Projected Score
San Marino 2–0 Finland
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
San Marino
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
San Marino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
San MarinoLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FinlandLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
San MarinoFinland
41.7Attack11.1
75.0Defence27.8
58.3Form0.0
60.3Power18.3
1.96xG0.60