San Marinovs
Albania
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 9/29/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Albania · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: San Marino 0-0 Albania, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
San Marino 0-3 Albania
Original prediction
Albania
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 43.95 | 2.1% | 33.9% | 31.8 pts |
| Draw | 13.87 | 6.8% | 24.7% | 17.9 pts |
| Away | 1.04 | 91.0% | 41.4% | -49.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.04 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-49.6 pts
Projected Score
San Marino 0–0 Albania
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Albania
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Albania has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
San MarinoLLLDL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AlbaniaWLLLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
San MarinoAlbania
41.7Attack22.2
75.0Defence66.7
58.3Form38.9
60.3Power45.6
1.11xG0.63