San Marino U21vs
Spain U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/1/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Spain U21 · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-3 (14%), 0-4 (14%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Marino U21 0-13 Spain U21
Original prediction
Spain U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 100.67 | 1.0% | 4.4% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 80.67 | 1.2% | 7.3% | 6.0 pts |
| Away | 1.01 | 97.8% | 88.3% | -9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–314%
- 2.0–414%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Spain U21
Probability
88.3%
Model confidence
88.3%
Spain U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 26 · avg 0.00/5.20
GF 19 · GA 2 · avg 3.80/0.40