Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Luis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Luis 1-1 Recoleta
Original prediction
San Luis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.8% | 50.8% | -7.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.0% | 25.8% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.72 | 19.2% | 23.4% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.94 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
San Luis
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
San Luis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
San LuisWWWWW
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
RecoletaLLWDW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
San LuisRecoleta
51.2Attack47.6
65.5Defence50.0
63.1Form48.8
61.6Power50.6
1.70xG0.87