San Jose Earthquakesvs
Nashville SC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/18/2026, 2:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nashville SC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Nashville SC
Original prediction
Nashville SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.49 | 26.8% | 20.5% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.5% | 21.1% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 48.7% | 58.4% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Nashville SC
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Nashville SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60