San Giovannivs
Tre Penne
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 8/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Penne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Giovanni 2-3 Tre Penne
Original prediction
Tre Penne
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.42 | 12.2% | 19.4% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.55 | 16.4% | 18.1% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.27 | 71.4% | 62.5% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Tre Penne
Probability
62.5%
Model confidence
62.5%
Tre Penne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60