San Giovannivs
Tre Fiori
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tre Fiori · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Giovanni 0-1 Tre Fiori
Original prediction
Tre Fiori
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.45 | 6.3% | 17.5% | 11.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.00 | 15.1% | 20.4% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 1.15 | 78.7% | 62.1% | -16.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Tre Fiori
Probability
62.1%
Model confidence
62.1%
Tre Fiori has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00