San Giovannivs
Cailungo
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Giovanni · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
San Giovanni 0-3 Cailungo
Original prediction
San Giovanni
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.1% | 44.5% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 25.9% | 26.2% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.89 | 23.0% | 29.3% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
San Giovanni
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
San Giovanni has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80