Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samtredia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Samtredia 1-2 Rustavi
Original prediction
Samtredia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 10:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.61 | 25.0% | 42.0% | 16.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 26.2% | 25.7% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 48.7% | 32.4% | -16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Samtredia
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Samtredia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SamtrediaWLWWW
GF 16 · GA 2 · avg 3.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
RustaviLWDLD
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
SamtrediaRustavi
66.7Attack33.3
83.3Defence66.7
100.0Form44.4
86.5Power51.1
2.02xG1.21