Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gareji · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Samtredia are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Gareji are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Gareji hold a 14.5-point power-rating edge (49.4 v 63.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.8% in the Erovnuli Liga 2, while Gareji holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gareji
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Gareji has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60