Sampaio Corrêa RJvsMadureira

COMPLETED

Brazil · Copa Rio · 9/16/2026, 5:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sampaio Corrêa RJ · BTTS No · Under 2.5

Projected score: Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0-0 Madureira, with an exact score probability of 25%.

Final result

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1-1 Madureira

Original prediction

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Outcome

Incorrect

Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.

Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50

Market	Odds	Implied probability	Model probability	Difference
Home	2.03	43.8%	43.4%	-0.4 pts
Draw	2.96	30.0%	32.0%	2.0 pts
Away	3.40	26.2%	24.5%	-1.6 pts

Historical EV

1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.96 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -

Value score

-0.4 pts

Projected Score

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0–0 Madureira

Exact score probability: 25%

Predicted outcome

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Probability

43.4%

Model confidence

43.4%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Sampaio Corrêa RJWLWDW

GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5

MadureiraDLDWD

GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5

Sampaio Corrêa RJMadureira

33.3Attack27.8

83.3Defence66.7

72.2Form38.9

65.5Power47.4

0.93xG0.53