Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samgurali · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Samgurali are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Telavi are 0W-1D-1L in their last 2 (DL), averaging 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 7 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Samgurali hold a 7.6-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 40.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.4% in the Erovnuli Liga, while Samgurali holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Samgurali
Probability
48.4%
Model confidence
48.4%
Samgurali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 0 · GA 1 · avg 0.00/0.50