Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samgurali · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Samgurali are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Alashkert are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Samgurali hold a 13.2-point power-rating edge (58.7 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Samgurali holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Samgurali
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
12.1%
Samgurali has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80