Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sambiase · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sambiase 1-0 Nissa
Original prediction
Sambiase
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 41.8% | 39.2% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.4% | 28.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.98 | 29.8% | 32.3% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Sambiase
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Sambiase has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SambiaseDWLWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NissaLDDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SambiaseNissa
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24