Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SalPa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SalPa 3-2 OLS
Original prediction
SalPa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.6% | 48.9% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.66 | 19.5% | 18.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 20.9% | 32.5% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
SalPa
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
SalPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SalPaWLWWW
GF 18 · GA 11 · avg 3.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
OLSLWWDW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SalPaOLS
71.8Attack64.1
42.3Defence51.3
57.7Form52.6
57.2Power56.1
2.31xG2.06