Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
SalPa are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while MP are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and MP hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (39.9 v 45.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.2% in the Ykkösliiga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 39% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
35.2%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20