Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SalPa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0
SalPa are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while KPV-j are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and SalPa hold a 32.4-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 20.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 82.7% in the Ykkönen, while SalPa holds the strongest overall chance at 83% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 80% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
SalPa
Probability
82.7%
Model confidence
82.7%
SalPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 17 · avg 1.60/3.40