Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SalPa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
SalPa are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while JäPS are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (WLLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and SalPa hold a 7.6-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 45.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.2% in the Ykkönen, while SalPa holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
SalPa
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
SalPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20