Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SalPa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SalPa 4-3 JJK
Original prediction
SalPa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 47.2% | 47.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.2% | 18.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 29.6% | 34.0% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–16%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
SalPa
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
SalPa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SalPaWWLDW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
JJKWDDDL
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SalPaJJK
62.1Attack77.3
47.0Defence36.4
54.5Form47.0
54.7Power52.1
2.63xG2.27