Salisburyvs
Dulwich Hamlet
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Salisbury · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Salisbury 5-0 Dulwich Hamlet
Original prediction
Salisbury
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.1% | 42.0% | -18.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.3% | 26.7% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 18.6% | 31.3% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Salisbury
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Salisbury has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80